My Money

Safe withdrawal rate calculator (Monte Carlo)

How much can you take out of your corpus each year without running out? Instead of one guess, we simulate 2,000 different market futures and count how many your plan survives.

Currency
₹
₹5 crore
₹
That’s a 2.40% withdrawal rate, rising with inflation
 yrs
Retiring at 45 and planning to 90? That’s 45 years.
 %
The rest is in debt / fixed income, rebalanced yearly
Market assumptions
 %
 %
How much a typical year swings. Indian equity ≈ 20%.
 %
 %
 %
Chance your money lasts
0%
Likely to run out — 2.40% withdrawal over 40 years
Safe rate at this mix
0.0%
Median left at the end
…
Corpus multiple
42×

2,000 possible retirements

Safe rate by equity share

The famous 4% rule comes from US market history. A 2024 study of Indian data (Raju & Saraogi) found a safe rate of about 3–3.5% at 95% confidence, with roughly 40% in equity. Longer retirements need lower rates.
Simulations are pre-tax, rebalance yearly, and assume returns follow a bell curve. Real markets have fatter tails — treat this as a guide, not a guarantee.
How it’s calculated

The maths, in plain words

Random markets

Each simulated year draws an equity return, a debt return and an inflation rate around your assumptions, so some retirements see crashes early, some late.

Spending rises

You withdraw your first-year amount, then raise it by that year’s inflation — just like real life.

Success rate

The share of the 2,000 retirements where money never runs out. The safe rate is the highest withdrawal that still hits your chosen confidence.

Questions

People also ask

Your inputs stay on this device. Use Copy link to save or share a calculation.

What is a safe withdrawal rate?
The percentage of your corpus you can withdraw in the first year, then raise with inflation, with a high chance of the money lasting your whole retirement.
What is a good safe withdrawal rate for India?
Around 3–3.5% for a 30-year retirement with a balanced mix, and lower — closer to 2.5–3% — for 40–45 year early retirements. Higher Indian inflation is the main reason it’s below the US 4%.
Why does more equity not always help?
Equity grows faster but swings harder. A crash early in retirement, while you’re withdrawing, can do permanent damage. That’s why a middle mix often gives the highest safe rate.
Understand it

Related guides

All guides
Plan7 min read

FIRE, explained — and how it works in India

Financial independence in plain words — your FI number, Lean, Fat and Coast FIRE, and the Indian twists that change the maths.

Plan7 min read

Safe withdrawal rate — why 4% may not work in India

Where the 4% rule came from, what Indian data says instead, and how to make a retirement corpus last 30 to 45 years.

Plan

More in Plan

See all

Retirement number

The corpus you need, and the SIP that builds it.

Open

NPS calculator

Your NPS corpus, lump sum and monthly pension at 60.

Open

FIRE calculator

Your FI number, when you’ll reach it, and your Coast FI point.

Open

How much insurance?

The term life cover your family needs, and a sensible health plan.

Open

Rent vs buy

Does buying a home make you richer than renting and investing?

Open

Inflation

What things will cost later — and what your money will be worth.

Open